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  • Writer's pictureConrad Binding

UK housing market barometer



Economy


  • Rishi Sunak has announced a 4th July general election in a statement outside Downing Street.

  • Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in April 2024, following growth of 0.4% in March 2024 (ONS).

  • CPI inflation rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to April 2024, down from 3.2% in March (ONS).


House prices


  • The average price for a property in March was £282,776, up 1.8% year-on-year and 0.7% on the previous month (ONS).

  • UK house prices rose 0.4% month on month in May, while the annual growth rate picked up to 1.3%, from 0.6% in April (Nationwide).

  • The average asking price of property coming to the market rose by 0.8% in May to a new high of £375,131, with the strongest growth in the top-of-the-ladder segment (Rightmove).


Transactions


  • The HMRC report that 90,430 sales took place in April, the highest level since March 2023 and up 9.8% on last years levels.

  • The agreed sales metric in the latest RICS' survey fell to a reading of -13%, down from +4% last time.

  • The number of sales being agreed in the first four months of the year is 17% higher than last year (Rightmove).


Demand


  • There were 61,140 mortgage approvals in April, down -0.2% on the previous month but up 25.8% year-on-year (Bank of England).

  • The reading of new buyer enquiries in the latest RICS Residential Market Survey is -8%, down from a figure of -1% previously.

  • The number of new sellers coming to the market is up by 12% compared to this time a year ago (Rightmove).


Investment/lettings


  • Average UK private rents increased by 8.9% in the 12 months to April, down from 9.2% in March (ONS, Price Index of Private Rents).

  • The average UK rent rose by 0.2% in May to £1,297, 6.9% higher than the same time last year (HomeLet).

  • The average void period in May was 11% higher than the same time last year, suggesting a slight lessening of the imbalance between demand and supply (Goodlord).


Development


  • Just over 240,000 new homes were built in the year to the end of Q1 2024 . This represents a -8.4% fall quarter on quarter, however completions rose 2.8% compared to the same quarter last year (MHCLG).

  • The year to March 2024 saw the fewest new housing sites consented than during any 12-month period since the data collection commenced in 2006 (Home Builders Federation).

  • There are now 265,000 Build to Rent homes complete, under construction, or in planning, with the sector growing 4% between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 (BPF).


Prime markets


  • There were 5,023 new sales instructions in the first 21 weeks of 2024, up by 8.5% from the same period last year last year, but still 0.4% below 2021 levels (Lonres).

  • In the first three months of 2024, 80% of sales across PCL were sold at a discount (Coutts).

  • Agreed sales in PCL are down 10% in the first 21 weeks of the year compared to the same period in 2023, and 35% fewer than in 2021 (Lonres).

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